Matt N
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Posts posted by Matt N
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Interestingly, queue-times.com, a website that monitors live queue data from Chessington and has done for many years, actually indicates that Dragon’s Fury has the park’s longest average queue time, averaging 44 minutes on a regular day and 63 minutes on a peak day: https://queue-times.com/parks/3/stats
Admittedly, Vampire comes in a close second, averaging 42 minutes on a regular day and 62 minutes on a peak day, but that’s hardly the landslide win for Vampire that’s being implied. Assuming both have similar throughputs to one another (and many reports would imply that they do, in recent times at least), then this data would suggest that Dragon’s Fury has just as much right to the mantle of “flagship attraction at Chessington” as Vampire does, if not more.
I also personally disagree that Vampire is “more iconic” than Nemesis at Alton Towers. I was not alive when Nemesis opened, but I’m led to believe that Nemesis had an outstanding nationwide marketing campaign that made sure that literally everyone knew about it, and it cannot be denied that Nemesis saw Alton Towers’ attendance skyrocket to levels never seen before or since (1994 was by far the park’s highest ever year, with Merlin’s graph showing that a figure of around 3.3 million was attained, and the only time that the park has even exceeded 3 million since was in 2010), so I’d argue that Nemesis “made” Alton Towers just as much as Vampire “made” Chessington if not more. Not to mention that it’s a world renowned roller coaster at the UK’s most popular theme park; millions of people have ridden it, and millions of people still revere it; you only have to look at the ruckus caused in the days since its “closure” was announced. Even down here in the South West, a great many people I know heard about the Nemesis closure announcement and expressed sadness. Would Vampire closing stir the same kind of reaction? I’m not so sure; it may have been brilliant for Chessington back in the day, but I simply don’t think that it’s a countrywide coaster icon in quite the same way as Nemesis.
Admittedly, though, how “iconic” a ride is is very subjective and incredibly hard to measure.
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I apologise… I was under the impression that Around The World in 80 Days was a lot more similar to It’s a Small World than it clearly was.
Out of interest, what Doom & Son’s elements are there within Duel? I was under the impression that The Haunted House was entirely brand new and bespoke for the park, so I must admit that it surprises me to hear of Doom & Son’s elements being reused within it.
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I’m not sure about Around the World in 80 Days, but I know that there is a wall from Doom & Sons, which also previously occupied part of the building, left in the Alton Towers Dungeon.
As for how it would have aged; I agree that it might not have aged brilliantly had it lasted beyond 1993, but I guess it is basically an Alton Towers version of It’s a Small World, and that ride is still entertaining riders at various Disney parks over 50 years on from its inception.
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Danny on TowersStreet Talk has made an interesting discovery within Zierer's IAAPA product magazine that arguably drops a heavy hint towards Legoland's new coaster being a Zierer family shuttle rather than a Vekoma Family Boomerang, and also provides an insight into a potential theme for the new ride:
I don't know about any of you, but that "Dueling Reverse Coaster" looks exactly like Legoland's proposed layout to me, and the cops and robbers type trains in the left image could possibly hint towards a Lego City theme, in my view. That would certainly suit both Lego and a duelling roller coaster, so would work well, in my view.
P.S. Here's Danny's TowersStreet post: https://towersstreet.com/talk/threads/legoland-windsor.67/page-77#post-382844
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Just now, Marley said:
In terms of what I'd like to see brought in. Pepper's Ghost effects. I'd like to see Pepper's Ghost effect utilised loads. You could even use screens to create the effect, although you cannot beat using physical props.
Ooh, I'd love a good bit of Pepper's Ghost; I think that it's a terrific effect, and it would work so well on a haunted house ride, in my view!
I'd also really like to see some projection mapping in there too; I think this can really enhance a ride when it's well used!
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I don't think it does, no. I seem to remember it being removed when Merlin introduced the cheap season passes in 2018, and I never remember it being revived.
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I reckon that if Vampire's trains were to be replaced with anything, it would be the Vekoma SFC-style trains with overhead lap bars. They're easy to source, and they're also brilliantly comfortable; I feel that they would be a huge improvement on the current rolling stock!
Personally, I'd actually remove Vampire rather than retrack it. I don't think it's as iconic as something like Nemesis, and I have high faith that Merlin could replace it with something superior (perhaps not directly, what with the council's issues with that site, but I certainly think that they could provide it with a far superior spiritual successor).
Admittedly, I only rode it once back in 2014, but I controversially wasn't a huge fan of it; I remember it being surprisingly rough, and having numerous dead spots in its layout. That was admittedly based on one ride a very long time ago, however; I should probably get back on it and make a fairer judgement.
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It's a tough one; I think they're stuck between a rock and a hard place with Vampire, really.
It's an old ride built by a defunct manufacturer with parts that are likely hard to source replacements for, but at the same time, Kingston Borough Council have made it very clear that they will not allow Vampire to be replaced by something on the same scale.
Personally, I'm not sure if I see it getting retracked. It's certainly possible, particularly seeing as bespoke retrack jobs are becoming easier than ever with the likes of Taziker (who are gradually retracking The Big One at Blackpool Pleasure Beach) entering the market, but I'm not sure that Vampire is quite as iconic as Nemesis was, and there are other things working against it compared to Nemesis.
Nemesis remains world-renowned 28 years on from its opening, is located at the UK's most popular theme park, and is an example of a ride type from an operating manufacturer that's still being actively produced. With Nemesis being located in a bespokely made pit, it would also be a herculean task to replace it with, well, anything.
With Vampire, on the other hand; while it was the ride that made Chessington back in 1990, I'm not sure that it has quite that same iconic reputation as Nemesis. While unique, it's not world renowned in the same way, and arguably not iconic in the same sense either. Also, while the council have said that Vampire couldn't be replaced with something on the same scale, they could replace it with something quite easily and build it a spiritual successor of sorts elsewhere in the park. Not to mention that with Arrow now out of business, getting new parts for it would be easier said than done.
I think it could happen, but I'm not so sure that it will because I think that numerous things work against that possibility for Vampire compared to Nemesis.
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3 hours ago, Marley said:
Didn't they touch up Duel a couple years back during the Towers Loving Care (TLC) initiative? That didn't seem to prolong the lifespan by much.
I'm a bit of a pessimist about this tbh. I do wish they make this great ghost train one of the best in the world once again but thinking about previous Merlin projects. Lets just say I'm very cautious.
Indeed they did, but that contended with both a shorter timescale (Duel closed in September, while the TLC revamp happened only over the closed season) and likely a vastly lower budget (likely in the low six-figure territory, if not lower).
For what it's worth, people "in the know" over on TowersStreet have pegged the budget for this at £3-5m. As a point of comparison, the Duel revamp allegedly cost no more than £1m in 2003 money (likely less), which equates to ~£1.6m in today's money (I checked on the BoE inflation calculator), so this project is likely to cost at least twice what the Duel revamp did back in 2003 even when adjusting for inflation, and that's even assuming that Duel hit the full £1m in the first place (which from what I've heard, it likely didn't). For some idea, that small budget went a surprisingly long way in the 2003 Duel revamp; they demolished a not insignificant portion of the Haunted House and replaced it with an entirely new scene, they revamped the existing Haunted House scenes, they changed the lighting, and they added a brand new interactive laser gun system as well. Given what some are suggesting Merlin will do with the alleged budget of this project, the much smaller budget of Duel went a pretty long way, and that makes me very optimistic for this project!
I am really excited to see what they do with it! 6 months and an alleged £3-5m budget could go a long way, particularly given that this is unlikely to have the IP costs of a typical Merlin retheme to contend with!
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I have an update; all of the wooden boards from Sub-Terra’s queue line are now gone:
Given that the frame underneath appears to have been carefully retained, I reckon that this is a strong indication that those wooden boards will be replaced in preparation for some kind of Sub-Terra reopening next year…
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Hi guys. The TEA/AECOM Theme Index for 2021 came out today, and it makes for interesting reading: https://aecom.com/wp-content/uploads/documents/reports/AECOM-Theme-Index-2021.pdf
As I said, this report makes for thoroughly interesting reading, in my view! Some particular points of interest include:
- The attendance recouped at parks seemed to drastically vary; some parks had increases of over 200% and nearly reached 2019 levels, while some remained a considerable way off.
- Magic Kingdom remains the world’s most visited theme park, with 12,691,000 guests passing through its gates in 2021 (an 82% increase on 2020).
- Interestingly, Disney’s cast iron grip on the Orlando market appears to have loosened drastically in the aftermath of COVID, with both Universal Orlando parks topping the attendance of every Walt Disney World park with the exception of Magic Kingdom in 2021. Universal Studios Florida increased by 119% and got 8,987,000 guests and Islands of Adventure increased by 127% and got 9,077,000 guests, while Hollywood Studios increased by 134% and got 8,589,000 guests, Epcot increased by 92% and got 7,752,000 guests, and Animal Kingdom increased by 73% and got 7,194,000 guests.
- Volcano Bay has also topped Disney’s Blizzard Beach to become North America’s most visited water park; it increased by 207% on 2020 and attracted 1,691,000 guests, while Blizzard Beach increased by 280% on 2020 and attracted 1,201,000 guests. Typhoon Lagoon, the previous most visited in North America, was not listed due to it not being open, and the world’s most visited water park remains Chimelong Ocean Kingdom in China, which increased by 47% on 2020 and attracted 2,230,000 guests.
- In Asia, Shanghai Disneyland remains the most visited park (despite both Tokyo parks topping it by some margin prior to COVID), increasing by 54% on 2020 and attracting 8,480,000 guests. The two Tokyo Disneyland parks were some way below Shanghai in spite of their pre-COVID status at the top; Tokyo Disneyland increased by 51% on 2020 and attracted 6,300,000 guests, while Tokyo DisneySea increased by 71% on 2020 and attracted 5,800,000 guests. Universal Studios Japan increased by a mere 12% on 2020 and attracted 5,500,000 guests. Interestingly, the second most visited park in Asia was actually Chimelong Ocean Kingdom, which increased by 55% on 2020 and attracted 7,452,000 guests.
- In Europe, Disneyland Park in France regained its title of Europe’s most visited theme park, increasing by 34% over 2020 and attracting 3,500,000 guests. Its sibling, Walt Disney Studios, also increased by 34% on 2020 and attracted 1,884,000 guests. Some of mainland Europe’s gains were surprisingly limited relative to elsewhere; for instance, Europa Park increased by only 20% on 2020 and attracted 3,000,000 guests, and Efteling increased by only 14% on 2020 and attracted 3,300,000 guests. Mainland Europe still seems to be quite a way off attaining 2019 figures in some cases.
- However, Spain performed very well compared to the rest of mainland Europe, with both of its parks in the top 25 registering triple digit increases on 2020; PortAventura increased by 243% on 2020 and attracted 2,400,000 guests, while Parque Warner Madrid increased by 189% on 2020 and attracted 1,300,000 guests.
- The UK performed very well, with all 4 UK parks in the top 25 registering comfortable triple digit increases; Alton Towers increased by 169% on 2020 and attracted 1,800,000 guests, Thorpe Park increased by 183% on 2020 and attracted 1,700,000 guests, Legoland Windsor increased by 233% on 2020 and attracted 1,500,000 guests, and Chessington increased by 184% on 2020 and attracted 1,450,000 guests.
Some interesting information overall, don’t you think? I wonder what 2022 will be like…
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Sorry to double post, but I have an update... as per TowersStreet Facebook, construction fences have also now been put up around the building:
I don't know about any of you, but to me, this certainly implies that something is happening...
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Sorry to bump this thread, but I have a Sub-Terra update after over 4 years of inactivity in this thread.
Considerable rumours have been swirling in recent days about the potential of it reopening in 2023, as a potential marketing tool to hype up the Nemesis retrack as well as to ease the burden on Galactica & The Blade while Nemesis is out of action.
Now I hear what you’re all saying; “This rumour has reared its head practically every year since the ride closed. What makes it any more likely to happen this time?”. That is a valid point, in fairness, but there seems to be a bit more weight behind this rumour at the moment, as well as various reasons why it would make a lot of sense.
Recently, there has been quite a bit of work going on in and around the Sub-Terra area. The doors to the building have been open, alarms have been tested, the queue line has been cleared... a fair bit's been going on. In fairness, some of this has gone on in previous years as well, so I can understand scepticism, but the ride does seem to have had an irregularly high amount of work going on around it lately. However... one key thing has now happened that has not happened in any previous year, and that's that they are removing a significant amount of the wood panels from the queue line, which could indicate that they are planning to replace them... which would heavily hint towards it being used again in some capacity. DanJB from TowersStreet Talk shared these photos:
Source: https://towersstreet.com/talk/threads/nemesis-sub-terra.4452/page-36#post-382319
Given that they've done next to nothing to Sub-Terra's building since it closed in 2015, I think the fact that they're suddenly ripping out loads of wooden boards is quite a telling sign that they're planning to do something or other with it. If they're ripping stuff out now without an intention to use the building, why would they not have done it at some other point in the last 7 years?
That isn't the only indication, though... with the closure of Nemesis now announced, Alton Towers have suddenly started making a big deal about The Phalanx. The signs around the park advertising Nemesis' closure are supposedly "by order of The Phalanx", and the staff on Nemesis are now wearing boiler suits with the Phalanx logo on them. It should be noted that The Phalanx were never really a part of Nemesis' story until Sub-Terra... could the park's sudden emphasis upon The Phalanx be an indicator that Sub-Terra is making a return?
I should also note that Jb85 on TowersStreet Talk, who works for a local lighting company who have supplied Alton Towers before, has claimed that Alton Towers has requested their services once again for a 2023 project... in the Sub-Terra building:
Somethings happening ok. I can't hide it any longer....
Can't give details but through work I now know this is the project area we are working on
No drama I'm the same but for once actually know
all I know is new lighting effects are going into the building. I suspect its an updated version of what is already their to be honest. I don't actually know anything hardware or theme related.
My point being though, similar to yours, there is no need for endless pages of 'I wonder if something us happening, is it coming back' when it's clear it is, in some shape or form.
No offence taken, and I have to say if I knew exact project details I wouldn't be posting them. New lights isn't major discussion point.
So on that note I can confirm without a shadow of a doubt they are extending Nemesis to go through the sub terra pit.
Source: https://towersstreet.com/talk/threads/nemesis-sub-terra.4452/page-29#post-378308
There are also various sources hinting towards a return of the ride next year... the staff are supposedly telling people that Sub-Terra is due to return, various people in the know are hinting towards it and YouTubers, including Theme Park Worldwide, have started making videos about the possibility of it returning.
Now I'm not saying that YouTubers are to be taken as gospel by any stretch, but for what it's worth, Shawn made a video about Duel potentially getting a revamp earlier this year when the evidence pointing towards such a thing was still pretty spurious (probably less concrete than what we're seeing here, as there was neither visible construction nor potentially relevant park teasers), and even though people at the time dismissed it as him simply "stirring the pot on a slow news day", he was actually proven correct when the ride closed a few months later. Now he could well have just been adding 2 and 2 and happened to be correct by coincidence, but given that he worked at Alton Towers for 7 years, lives in the local area and is friendly with many Alton Towers employees, I don't think it's inconceivable to suggest that he might have inside sources. Here's TPW's video:
Another YouTuber, Lift Hills and Thrills, made a video "confirming" that Sub-Terra was returning in 2023. Now I'd take this with a pinch of salt without official park confirmation, but for what it's worth, this person did talk about the Nemesis retrack a year before it was announced (as he reminds us of in the comments), and he said something that I thought was a very intriguing comment to make if he didn't know something... he said that "the capacity of the drop towers may be reduced". Now I don't know about you, but I thought this was a bizarrely specific thing to pick up on if he hadn't genuinely been told something. The speaker also hints that the ride "won't be the same Sub Terra we previously knew"... here's his video:
(Go to 3:11 to hear about the capacity comment)
So that's the evidence we have to suggest Nemesis Sub-Terra could be reopening next season. I don't know about you, but I think that that's pretty solid evidence; there's both concrete evidence (the work), and a fair bit of smoke rumours-wise, and as they always say, there's no smoke without fire.
Personally, I'm pretty confident that we could be seeing Sub-Terra return in some form next season. The rumour mill is spinning significantly more than it has been in previous years, not to mention that there is also a fair amount of concrete evidence (work taking place inside the building, the sprucing up, and the recent hefty removal of queue line wood), as well as possible hints from the park themselves (why have Alton Towers suddenly made The Phalanx such a big thing on Nemesis?). Not to mention that I think it would make an awful lot of sense; that area of the park could use some support capacity-wise without Nemesis, and I also think that Sub-Terra reopening could be quite an effective marketing tool for the retrack.
But what do you guys reckon?
TL;DR Rumours are swirling that Nemesis Sub-Terra could be reopening in 2023. This is because:
- Significant work has been taking place in and around the building, including the recent removal of a fair amount of queue line wood.
- The park have suddenly made a lot of references to The Phalanx (a key part of Sub-Terra) around Nemesis.
- There are many sources, including park staff, suggesting that the ride could be reopening next season.
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Disclaimer: I apologise in advance, as this post is quite long. There is a TL;DR at the bottom for those who would like one.
Hi guys. As many of you probably know, Duel, Alton Towers’ interactive haunted house-style dark ride, recently closed for a retheme and is reopening in 2023. Speculation is rife throughout the UK enthusiast community about what this retheme could entail and what it might be like, but one thing I’ve noticed is that there are a considerable number of people who wish for the park to go down the nostalgia route. These people are clamouring for the ride to be returned brick by brick to exactly how it was when it first opened in 1992, as though the 2003 Duel revamp never happened. There’s quite a considerable group of people who believe this, and it’s part of a wider trend of nostalgia that seems to have gripped the UK enthusiast community as of late. There are now quite a few different nostalgic calls to “bring back” old rides being made around the community, including:
- “Revert Duel back to the Haunted House”
- “Revert Galactica back to Air”
- “Revive Pirate Adventure”
- “Revive Rocky Express”
- “Revert The Gruffalo River Ride Adventure back to Professor Burp’s Bubbleworks”
- “Revive Ripsaw, Boneshaker and Dynamo”
- “If Project Horizon isn’t a Black Hole revival, they’re missing a trick”
My basic point is; a considerable wave of nostalgia seems to have gripped the UK enthusiast community as of late, with clamouring for old attractions from the 90s and early 2000s to return being quite commonplace at the moment. So my question to you today is; what are your thoughts on the use of nostalgia within theme parks? What are your thoughts on parks “bringing back” old attractions, or making nods to the past?
Personally, I’m a bit mixed on nostalgia myself.
I’m perfectly happy with minor displays of nostalgia at parks. Subtle nods to the past scattered within a new attraction? Great! Loads of old artwork and concepts being displayed, like in the Rollercoaster Restaurant at Alton Towers? Love it! Wanting to sell retro merchandise? Go for it! Relatively minor nostalgic touches are nice for those who look for this sort of stuff and don’t really affect the experience at large for the average guest, so these can certainly be pretty good when done well, in my view.
However, I’m not so keen on the prospect of more major scale nostalgia, such as “bringing back” old rides. Personally, I think parks should move forward into the future rather than stay in the past when it comes to new attractions, and I am personally sceptical as to whether “bringing back” old attractions would have a happy ending, for multiple reasons.
Basically, my thought process is that “bringing back” an old attraction would please relatively few people, because the average guest likely wouldn’t know what the old attraction being “revived” was, or even if they did, they likely wouldn’t understand why the park was “reviving” an old ride that closed years prior. I also have a concern that the ride of old may not resonate with modern crowds in the same way as it did with original crowds, no matter how good it was when it originally operated.
Whereas I fear that the enthusiasts and die hard nostalgics whom such a move would be aimed at would be critical of the fact that the “revival” wasn’t enough like the old ride, because let’s face it, a “revival” can never be the exact same ride as the original attraction being “revived” was, no matter how good the intentions of your creative team are. That’s simply impossible due to technological advancements, part of or all of the old ride having been scrapped, and simply due to the fact that no matter how hard you try, you cannot rewrite history to pretend that the removal of the original ride never happened. That’s why I always say “revival” in inverted commas, because it wouldn’t be a true “revival”, but rather a new experience with the same name.
For instance, one of the main nostalgic wishes as of late is for Duel at Alton Towers to be reverted back to the Haunted House exactly as it was in 1992, with all of the original props being kept, the Swamp finale being rebuilt and the Graham Smart soundtracks and original facade being fully restored. My concern here is that the original HH closed 20 years ago, so there is likely a considerable number of Alton Towers guests who don’t know about it, and even those that do would probably be somewhat bemused at why it was “returning”. I also have concerns that the ride as built in 1992, as good as it was back then, might not resonate with 2023 guests in the same way.
On the other side of the coin, I fear that the enthusiasts such a move would be aimed towards would be critical that a “revival” of the HH wouldn’t be enough like the original 1992 ride. Given that I’ve heard “it doesn’t even smell like it did in 1992” being banded about as a criticism of Duel, I think the nostalgics would be keen for every little detail to be restored to exactly how it was before in the event of a “revival”, which I fear simply wouldn’t be possible. The entire 1992 finale was demolished prior to the Duel revamp in 2003, Keith Sparks (the original designer) is dead, certain technologies used in the 1992 original are now obsolete and have long been succeeded by modern alternatives (for instance, the ride would have to be lit very differently nowadays, which would make the original scenes look very different to how they were originally supposed to look)… there’s a lot of factors that mean the ride simply would not be the same ride as it was in 1992 no matter how hard the creative team tried to make it the same. You cannot rewrite history and pretend that Duel never happened; there was only one of the original HH, and it closed in 2002. A “revival” of the HH would be a totally different attraction that simply shares the same name; it wouldn’t actually bring the old experience back.
But what are your thoughts on the use of nostalgia in theme parks, and the prospect of “bringing back” old attractions and themes?
TL;DR: Given the recent clamouring for many old attractions to return within the UK enthusiast community, I’d be keen to know your thoughts on the use of nostalgia within theme parks.
Overall, I have a mixed opinion on the use of nostalgia within theme parks. I don’t mind minor displays of nostalgia, as these can be fun for those who look for such things and don’t really affect the experience at large.
However, I am less keen on major scale nostalgia, such as “reviving” old attractions and themes, simply because I feel that you can’t rewrite history no matter how hard you try, and that a “revived” ride would never be the same as the original attraction. I also feel that a “revival” of an old attraction wouldn’t really resonate with the average guest.
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Out of interest, how do you know what Emily Alton’s handwriting looks like?
For my money, it could have been anyone who wrote that message on the blackboard. It could simply be the house passing into new ownership (ditto with the “repossessed” quote), with the new owner writing that message.
Personally, I’m skeptical that this overhaul will revolve heavily around Emily Alton. Given that she was simply in a minor gag in the queue line rather than a central character of the previous iterations, I do wonder if making the whole ride centre around her would be too much of a niche reference to appeal to most. Admittedly, you could sell her as a new character by giving her more of a backstory in the new version of the ride, but if too much were to be assumed about people’s knowledge of the character from the previous iterations, then I do wonder whether it would go over the heads of most guests, because as I said, Emily Alton was a very minor detail within the previous iterations rather than a central character.
Also; I apologise for my ignorance, but who is “Snowy”, out of interest? I’ve seen you make quite a few references to “Snowy”, but I don’t actually know who that is.
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Disclaimer: This post is quite long; I apologise in advance!
If any of you are interested, I decided to play with the attendance data a little more this evening and answer a couple of questions!
For starters, I'd like to apologise sincerely, because I only just realised that I messed up a couple of the numbers so that they were off by about 20,000... sorry about that. I've corrected the incorrect readings now.
The first thing I decided to ask was...
How would the parks be ranked in terms of average all time attendance?
To answer this question, I applied the statistical measures of mean, median and mode to each theme park's attendance.
The first statistical measure I used was the mean. The mean is a calculated average, which I worked out by adding all of the attendance figures together and dividing them by the number of years each park had listed in the graph. When ranked by mean attendance, the parks stacked up as follows:
- Alton Towers - 2,429,688 (excluding 2020), 2,389,358 (including 2020)
- Legoland Windsor - 1,820,652 (excluding 2020), 1,772,135 (including 2020)
- Chessington - 1,425,189 (excluding 2020), 1,397,978 (including 2020)
- Thorpe Park - 1,396,250 (excluding 2020), 1,372,664 (including 2020)
I must admit I was surprised at this... I wasn't surprised at the placements of AT and LLW, but for some reason, I was expecting Thorpe to be above Chessington... I guess its #4 placement makes sense from looking at the graph, but I must admit that it still surprised me.
The placements were much the same when I used median (the middle value):
- Alton Towers - 2,437,500 (excluding and including 2020)
- Legoland Windsor - 1,875,000 (excluding 2020), 1,781,250 (including 2020)
- Chessington - 1,437,500 (excluding and including 2020)
- Thorpe Park - 1,343,750 (excluding 2020), 1,312,500 (including 2020)
The mode (most common value) for each park was pretty different from the mean and median (which suggests clusters of higher and lower values rather than a fully normal distribution), but the rankings remained roughly the same:
- Alton Towers - 2,875,000 (excluding and including 2020)
- Legoland Windsor - 1,500,000 (excluding and including 2020)
- Chessington - 1,437,500 (excluding and including 2020)
- Thorpe Park - 1,093,750 (excluding and including 2020)
So all in all, I think we can conclude that interestingly, the parks' average attendances of all time align pretty nicely with the 2019 attendance ranking, with the parks being ranked as follows under all of the statistical measures:
- Alton Towers
- Legoland Windsor
- Chessington
- Thorpe Park
The second question I asked was...
Have any of the parks had anomalous years, or outliers, in their history?
To answer this question, I decided to calculate the standard deviation, which is a statistical measure that tells you how much variation there is in your dataset.
I hear you asking "well, how is the standard deviation relevant to outliers?". Well, standard deviation is relevant because the definition of an outlier is any reading that is more than 2 standard deviations away from the mean on either side. With that in mind, I calculated the standard deviation of each park's attendance, and used that to work out the "normal" range of each park's attendance (the range of figures that falls within 2SD of the mean; if the attendance data followed a perfect bell curve/normal distribution, approximately 97.5% of the data would fall within 2SD of the mean). Any figures that fell outside this range were deemed to be outliers, or anomalous years.
Here's how each park fared in this regard...
Alton Towers
Excluding 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 2,429,688
Standard Deviation: 392,762
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 3,215,212
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 1,644,163
Outliers: 1 (3,312,500 attained in 1994)
Including 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 2,389,358
Standard Deviation: 458,428
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 3,306,214
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 1,472,503
Outliers: 2 (3,312,500 attained in 1994 and 937,500 attained in 2020)
Chessington
Excluding 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 1,425,189
Standard Deviation: 259,927
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 1,945,044
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 905,335
Outliers: 1 (875,000 attained in 1987)
Including 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 1,397,978
Standard Deviation: 301,149
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 2,000,276
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 795,680
Outliers: 1 (500,000 attained in 2020)
Legoland Windsor
Excluding 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 1,820,652
Standard Deviation: 339,098
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 2,498,898
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 1,142,457
Outliers: 0
Including 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 1,772,135
Standard Deviation: 408,021
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 2,588,157
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 956,094
Outliers: 1 (656,250 attained in 2020)
Thorpe Park
Excluding 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 1,396,250
Standard Deviation: 384,292
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 2,164,833
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 627,667
Outliers: 1 (2,187,500 attained in 2010)
Including 2020
Mean All Time Attendance: 1,372,664
Standard Deviation: 405,989
Upper Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 2,184,643
Lower Bound of "Normal" Attendance Range: 560,686
Outliers: 2 (2,187,500 attained in 2010 and 500,000 attained in 2020)
It's really interesting to me to see that every single park has had at least one outlier at some point in its history! I knew that every park would have had 2020 as a giant outlier (that one needs no explanation, really...), but surprisingly, every park apart from Legoland had an anomalous year even prior to COVID. In Chessington's case, it was the park's all time low in 1987, while in the case of Alton and Thorpe, it was actually their all time peaks, in 1994 and 2010 respectively, that were outliers compared to the parks' other years attendance-wise.
You're probably wondering how outliers are actually relevant to theme park attendance. In fairness, they're not as relevant to theme park attendance as they would be in, say, a science experiment, but I think they're still important to consider, even though we are talking about theme park attendance rather than the growth of germ cultures in a petri dish or whatever.
In statistical terms, outliers are usually excluded from calculations such as averages and predictive analytics models. They are readings that are said to have a low chance of repeatability under normal circumstances, so my data suggests that the parks' anomalous years (both peaks and troughs) have produced attendance figures that there's a fair chance of the parks never hitting again, under normal circumstances at least. And when you look at the circumstances surrounding the parks' respective anomalous years, that would make some sense; the widespread anomalous low of 2020 was likely caused by COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns and social distancing (which certainly couldn't be referred to as "normal circumstances"), the anomalous Chessington low of 1987 was likely caused by it being the park's opening year and it only having half a season (which is unlikely to be repeated... the park will never have an opening year again, and a half-season is unlikely to be repeated under normal circumstances), and the anomalous Alton Towers and Thorpe Park highs were both likely caused by the opening years of freakishly successful major ride installations (I know Thorpe's was 2010 rather than 2009, but 2009 and 2011's figures were on the cusp of being outliers themselves, and 2009's massive increase was almost definitely stimulated by Saw), which likely wouldn't be considered "normal" circumstances.
I know that theme park attendance is a touch too nuanced for outliers to be set in stone, but I still think it's an interesting point to consider.
Another question I asked was...
Which parks have the most volatile attendance?
In order to answer this question, I once again employed our good friend standard deviation to measure the variability of each park's attendance.
In terms of standard deviation, the parks were ranked as follows:
Excluding 2020
- Alton Towers - 392,762
- Thorpe Park - 384,292
- Legoland Windsor - 339,098
- Chessington - 259,927
Including 2020
- Alton Towers - 458,428
- Legoland Windsor - 408,021
- Thorpe Park - 405,989
- Chessington - 301,149
So in terms of pure numbers, Alton Towers has the most variable attendance and Chessington has the least variable attendance. However, one key piece of the puzzle that pure numbers on their own don't take into account is the mean that the SD varies from in the first place; if the mean is larger, the SD will often be larger by default. To counter this, let's instead rank the parks by their standard deviation as a percentage of their mean attendance...
Excluding 2020
- Thorpe Park - 27.5%
- Legoland Windsor - 18.6%
- Chessington - 18.2%
- Alton Towers - 16.2%
Including 2020
- Thorpe Park - 29.6%
- Legoland Windsor - 23.0%
- Chessington - 21.5%
- Alton Towers - 19.2%
Interestingly, Thorpe Park actually has the most volatile attendance of the Merlin parks when SD is measured as a percentage of mean attendance; its standard deviation is surprisingly high given that its mean attendance is comfortably the smallest of the 4 parks.
This really puts into perspective how much higher the late 2000s and early 2010s were for attendance at Thorpe Park than any other point in its history, as well as how different Thorpe's growth trajectory has been to that of the other 3 parks. In spite of Thorpe having the most years on the graph, it only had one proper peak that it attained fairly late in its life. The park mostly ticked along at a fairly low attendance in its early years, peaking not much above the 1 million mark (quite often a bit below it, in fact; the park had numerous years of 900k or so, and its low is a little below 850k) for 20 years. The 1.5 million threshold was not breached until 2003, 20 years into Thorpe Park's time on the graph, and the peak of 2.1-2.2 million was only ever hit during the 2009-2011 period, with no year before or since coming even remotely close to it.
By comparison, Alton and Chessington both appear to have managed roughly 2 big growth cycles (or perhaps 1.5 in Chessington's case, as a trough never began in the 2nd one before COVID), and they've maintained a fairly high relative attendance throughout their lives on the graph (since 1984 in Alton's case and since 1987 in Chessington's case). Legoland never really had a trough, with that park having managed a fairly consistent, steady upward trajectory since appearing on the graph in 1997.
On a side note, I guess this also proves why you can't really rely on pure numbers on their own; Alton Towers had the highest actual number as its SD, but this was likely caused by its mean attendance being a solid peg higher than that of the other 3 parks, as its SD actually equated to the lowest percentage of mean attendance out of the 4.
The final question I asked was...
Which park fills to capacity the most?
Now I know that this one is based upon slightly more spurious reasoning, but I did think that this could be one question where the 2020 data might come in handy. I thought that the 2020 attendances might provide an interesting insight into this because in 2020, the parks were all open for the same amount of time, and all of them had heavily capped attendance, so hit capacity most of the time.
The way I thought I'd answer this question was by ranking the parks by how much lower their 2020 attendance was than their 2019 attendance (the percentage decrease). The park with the highest percentage decrease should, in theory, be the one that fills to capacity the most.
In terms of percentage decrease, the parks' 2020 attendances were ranked as follows:
- Chessington - -70.4% (500,000 vs 1,687,500)
- Legoland Windsor - -68.2% (656,250 vs 2,062,500)
- Thorpe Park - -66.7% (500,000 vs 1,500,000)
- Alton Towers - -62.5% (937,500 vs 2,500,000)
So from this, it can be ascertained that Chessington hits capacity the most and pushes the limits of its capacity the most on a typical day, while Alton Towers hits capacity the least by quite some margin. This would make sense given Chessington's well documented capacity struggles, and the fact that I can count on one hand the number of times I've ever known Alton Towers hit capacity.
The 2020 figures would also imply that Alton Towers has the highest capacity of any of the UK Merlin parks by quite some margin; its 2020 figure was close to 1 million, while the others were more like 500,000 (Chessington and Thorpe were joint lowest at bang on 500k, while Legoland was a little higher and edged closer to 600-700k).
One final thing I should reveal is that I have condensed all of this data into a Google Sheet, which has each park's data and statistics listed alongside a labelled line graph showing all of them together for visual perspective:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T3bmW5I9gyq6AgqogFJ6xSppi8vRw-y2SWoRZPpfdzg/edit?usp=sharing
If you're wondering why every park in the spreadsheet starts from 1983, with the ones that start later than 1983 having 0 listed as their attendance for the early years, this was because the graph didn't seem to like it when I tried to start each park from the year it actually started on Merlin's graph... it got very mixed up, so I just decided to have 1983 as a uniform starting point for all of them and put 0 for any years before the park actually appears on the graph. That's why every park apart from Thorpe has a massive surge from the bottom towards the left of the graph... that's simply that park "entering" the graph, if you like.
I hope you find this interesting! If you find any errors in my calculations, do tell me (I apologise once again for the earlier mess-up of a few of the figures...), and also tell me if you'd like me to ask any more questions about this dataset!
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On 10/7/2022 at 1:22 AM, Theme Park Fanatic said:
Is there an update on the building work that has been seen inside the Pirate Adventure Show Building. Earlier this season it was speculated that a modern version of Pirate Adventure could open. If true, this would be massive news. Prior to its 2015 closure this ride was very popular. The new Piraten in Batavia Europa Park has shown how popular 21st Parate Dark Rides are. It would be huge for Drayton Manor if they brought back a modern version of Pirate Adventure. For those who will declare that due to the fire Piraten in Batavia was easier to work with this is not true. As Pirate Adventure is partially SBNO Pirate Adventure would be a cheap way of opening a new ride. Pirate Adventure has many fans who are yearning for a return Drayton Manor would experience a surge in visitors. The Looping group have already returned an old favourite (The Rapids) this means a return of Pirate Adventure isn't off the cards.
There has been no update on Pirate Adventure, as far as I’m aware.
In other news, the park have officially confirmed that Apocalypse will be closing permanently on 30th October.
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Hi guys. Scare season has well and truly begun here in the UK; theme parks have embraced the Halloween spirit, scare parks have opened, and YouTube and social media are filled with nothing but scare event vlogs and reports. Two popular UK events, based at two of the UK’s most popular theme parks, are Alton Towers Scarefest and Thorpe Park Fright Nights. These events are similar in some ways and different in others, but they are often compared due to them both being based at Merlin theme parks. So I’d be keen to know; which event do you prefer? Are you an Alton Towers Scarefest person, or are you more of a Thorpe Park Fright Nights fan?
I’m not a scare fan at all, therefore I have done neither and can’t really pass judgement, but I’d be really keen to know which you prefer if you’ve done both!
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I know the thrill market would always have been pursued regardless of whether WWH had burned down or not, but I do wonder if it would have been pursued quite as aggressively had the fire not happened. Had WWH not burned down:
- We almost definitely wouldn’t have seen the “Sensory Overload” flat ride package of 2001, which was arguably one of the most defining points of the park’s move to the thrill market. Correct me if I’m wrong here, but I was led to believe that even though Vortex and Zodiac were built well away from the WWH area, all 3 rides built in 2001 (Vortex, Zodiac and Detonator) were a knee jerk reaction to the fire rather than a fully planned out long term move. I even seem to remember hearing that Detonator only had temporary planning permission originally, and was never originally intended as a permanent ride.
- There’s a good chance we may not have seen Nemesis Inferno, in its current form at least. Correct me if I’m wrong here, but I was led to believe that Mr Rabbit’s Tropical Travels was only removed due to a large portion of it burning down during the fire alongside Wicked Witches Haunt, and had Mr Rabbit’s Tropical Travels not been removed, there would have been nowhere for Inferno to be built on that site. There could well have been other areas considered (for instance, I know Making Thorpe Park cited the former Treasure Island site as an area originally under consideration for what eventually became Nemesis Inferno), but that ride would likely have been quite different had it been built elsewhere in the park.
- The park would have retained two fairly substantial family attractions, which could have made the park feel less skewed primarily toward teenagers and young adults and given it more of an Alton Towers-style vibe (a thrill park with slightly wider appeal). In particular, I think a Bubbleworks-style revamp of WWH by John Wardley could have given the park a staple family dark ride.
It is interesting to ponder an alternate universe where the Wicked Witches Haunt fire didn’t happen. Do you guys think things would have been slightly different? Or do you disagree, and think that much the same things would ultimately have happened, just in a slightly different order?
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13 hours ago, MattyB said:
I remember reading somewhere that John Wardley was most upset when it burnt down "before he could get his hands on it", so I would like to think that it would have survived with a John Wardley revamp until at least the 2010's. Also Josh you are correct with the RnR clone infrastructure issue. I remember speaking with the development director about why it didn't get built, and that was the reason he gave. He also stated the idea was a quick response to the fire, as they had heard on the grapevine that Disney Paris would be getting RnR (in 2002)
That is indeed true. In Making Thorpe Park by Chris Atkinson, it is said that John Wardley allegedly wanted to give the ride a Bubbleworks-style revamp.
Who knows what the future of Thorpe Park would have been had the fire never happened and WWH been rethemed by John Wardley/Tussauds...
Would we have seen the thrill flats aggressively expanded to the extent we ultimately saw? Would Nemesis Inferno have been built? Might the park have pursued a more Alton Towers-style route of being a thrill park that appeals to everyone? There are so many questions you could ask!
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For what it’s worth, DigitalDan is saying it’s been approved:
If true, that’s very exciting news indeed!
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Have we heard anything from the committee about a decision?
Or are we all waiting on Jack Silkstone’s livestream to hear the news?
I checked Runnymede Borough Council’s website less than an hour ago, and nothing had been added, but that could have been changed since…
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10 minutes ago, Trooper Looper said:
On TowerTimes forum, there's been a report that the rides internal walls are being stripped out of the warehouse. What are your guys thought on this?
My thought is that they could be significantly altering one of the scenes. Which scene is anyone's guess, but I definitely think they're building at least one brand new scene in there somewhere.
The Future Of Vampire
in Chessington World of Adventures
Posted
That I don’t know. I’d like to think that profiling changes wouldn’t matter so much, but if they changed any of the layout, then I think it would.