Firstly you make some really good points, and a well thought out discussion starter.
I was surprised to find out quite how many operations Merlin had.
As Josh has said there are so many layers and moving parts to an organisation the scale of Merlin, that we must be very careful to understand that at times decisions can be made to move in another direction which can be seen as negative, when in reality it’s simply a reaction to the market or an adjustment.
I will try to summarise all my thoughts in a more detailed response but for now I broadly agree with what Josh has said.
Aramark joint venture will have been set up with Merlin taking a percentage and an annual fee, and the arrangement is probably very risk free from Merlin’s perspective, although I agree the standard of service is poor and should be carefully monitored by Merlin.
MMM is an interesting one. As Josh points out it is studios north that is closing. Now my suspicions are that Merlin are starting to show their hand on the moves they will make to react to Universal. And for me that is a focus shifting to the south parks that stand to benefit from universal.
What does that mean? Time will of course tell, but the recent applications for Chessington suggest a shift towards harnessing the family market that Universal will pull to the UK shores, and the hints of the Thorpe hotel and project pivot suggests the park moving to start harnessing the enthusiasts and teen market that universal will create.
All of that coupled with project horizon seemingly slipping further to the right suggests a smaller budget being spent in the north, and when you think of universal as a threat or opportunity, geographically it’s probably more of a threat to towers than it is an opportunity.
As I’ve said, probably more to add to this tomorrow, but that’s what’s top of my head RN